Midweek Update - 9/3/25
This is a shorter mid-week update on the newsletter plays.
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Disclaimer: This letter reflects my personal opinions only and is not financial advice or investment advice. I am not a financial advisor and trading is inherently risky. Any trades that you take are on your at your own risk.
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Below is my view on the roadmap for SPY / SPX, and some other tickers. We will be trading these all live in Discord so come join us!
SPY High Time Frame View:
On Sunday I said:
Now I’m finally updating the plan after three weeks of it tracking pretty well. The main update here is based around seasonality and is not a suggestion to short. While I still believe that there is more upside left to 660(ish), seasonality generally has September as a down month so I’m cautious here. On Friday I alerted that I sold covered calls against half of my long shares portfolio as a hedge in case we get some volatility into September. What I would love to see play out is one final push to 660 in the next 1-2 weeks and then we can short SPY into Sep OPEX for an end of month correction.
If we go straight down from here to start off the month I won’t be trying to call top right now and take puts unless we get some real bearish action.
Not we got the dip to start the week but have filled the gap down and set a higher low on the high timeframe. So the key now is whether this low at 635 holds. If we can hold 635 and then break over 646.5, we will go to make a new ATH and I think the target is still 660. If we can’t hold 635 and we reject anywhere between here and 646.5, we likely will turn short term bearish and head lower in September. Recall that Sep is seasonally weak, so bears have a short opening here.
This plan also has updates on some key positions of mine (AAPL, UNH, TSLA, GOOGL, ETH).
SPY Low Time Frame View:
On the lower time frame (think day trading setups), what I’m looking for are the following potential setups:
Bullish Setup: We hold this higher low on a quick pullback and then breakout of this box range I’ve drawn. I think there’s two long opportunities in this setup. One is at about 641-642 range, with a stop below the swing low just below that, and another is if we come all the way back down to 635. The second is when we finally breakout of 646.5 then I think that is the start of a bigger trend move up to new all time highs (if all of this plays out as shown).
Bearish Setup: In order to get bearish we need to go make a lower low on the hourly timeframe. So we need to break below 632, and then ideally we’d bounce to retest 640 and then I’d consider a short down to the 620’s or even could see 610ish if we get some real bearish trend. That would be a dip buy IMO and I think there’s also a nice long scalp if we break down 632 to bounce back to 640, but need to wait till it gets back over 635 to take that one.
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ETH High Time Frame View
No Change to ETH:
Well still no change to the ETH chart. We had broken out faster than I expected to make a new ATH but it was a failed breakout. And not we’re back to flagging like I had originally predicted. I still think this flags for another month or two now and then we’ll make a big run into end of yaer. Nothing changing my outlook here.
AAPL high timeframe view:
No change - AAPL tracking really well
No changes here and looking nice after holding the 200 SMA (didn’t even get a full retest of it). I’m still in my full AAPL shares position and no changes to my view which is that we’ll hit ATH before end of the year. I’d take calls on a retest of the 200 day SMA at 220ish.
UNH high timeframe view:
Still no changes and same comments from last week hold:
UNH I’m still mega bullish until 400+. I’m in heavy size already on this but if we were to pullback to 280 range I’d add some more leap calls. If I was not in yet and was looking to get a new position, I’d probably target 290ish as a good spot to add shares (the CEO bought 25M in shares at around 290 when it was initially drilling, so that’s not a bad spot to look long term). If we got down closer to 250 that’s better for Leap calls.
TSLA high timeframe view:
No change still in the chop zone. I have an alert set for 367 breakout to hammer 400C when it finally breaks. Until then I’m just holding my shares.
GOOGL high timeframe view:
GOOGL playing out REALLY nicely for us and tracking perfectly. This 232 area is big resistance (fib level) and next up after some consolidation here is 250. I’ll be adding calls on this on any big dips (I doubt it fills the whole gap right away but if it did that would be a GIFT).
GOOGL made new ATHs last week and looks the strongest out of the Mag 7s right now. Still no change, I think probably get a little pullback with the market but likely goes to 250 by EOY.
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